Analysis by Natalia Stercul, director of the Foreign Policy Association (APE)

It is no secret that energy blackmail is a powerful political tool used by Russia in its foreign policy. As the Republic of Moldova has pursued its pro-European path, it has increasingly confronted with this problem and had to look for compromise solutions. Russia’s war against Ukraine has changed many things, including the attitude of the Moldovan authorities towards the energy issue. The search for alternative solutions and possibilities for diversifying energy resources was almost always hindered by the price policy, which imposed a financial burden hard to bear for Moldovan citizens.

However, the authorities succeeded in transferring the entire fuel consumption of the right bank of the Dniester to European markets, while the Russian-controlled Transnistrian region remained dependent on the gas supplies from Gazprom, which it received free of charge. After the five-year transit contract between Russia’s Gazprom and Naftogaz in Ukraine, a country in the midst of a war triggered by Russia, expired at the end of 2024, Russian gas supplies to Europe were stopped. Moscow has refused to provide alternative fuel supplies to Tiraspol, leading to an energy crisis artificially created by Russia.

Transnistria uses gas bought on the European market for the first time

In the winter of 2025, the Transnistrian region faced for the first time a major energy crisis due to the cessation of gas supplies from Russia. Increased electricity consumption by the residents of the unrecognized region exceeded the production capacity of the power system, leading to massive power outages. There were problems heating homes and supplying hot water. Almost all industrial enterprises suspended their operations, the food industry had to operate at night and schools were forced to extend their winter vacation. Electricity was insufficient and the Russian-induced energy crisis brought Transnistria to the brink of a humanitarian catastrophe. However, the accusations from the separatist authorities were not directed against Russia, which has left the region in dire straits, but against Chisinau and Kiev.

In view of the gravity of the situation, the European Union announced at the end of January €64 million in aid for Moldova to overcome the energy crisis. Of this amount, €30 million is earmarked for the purchase of gas and electricity for both banks of the Dniester, of which €20 million for gas for Transnistria and €10 million for electricity for the right bank. The remaining €34 million will be used for budget support. Thus, practically half of the amount is earmarked for the purchase of gas for Transnistria on European markets and for the production of electricity at the Moldovan Thermoelectric Power Plant for both banks of the Dniester. Starting February 1, “Moldovagaz” launched fuel deliveries to the Transnistrian region. Thus, for the first time in the last three decades, Transnistria, which had depended exclusively on free Russian gas, started using gas purchased on the European market.

Trying to find a solution to the current crisis, the Moldovan government has negotiated with the EU a grant to overcome the energy crisis. Thus, since February, Transnistria has been receiving gas purchased with European funds on the European market. Thanks to the support of European partners and their willingness to help, Chisinau has managed to find an alternative solution. This has enabled the resumption of electricity generation for both banks of the Dniester and the restoration of energy and heating for Transnistria’s residents. However, hopes persist in the Transnistrian region that supplies of free Russian gas will resume.

Moscow’s electoral manoeuvre

Against the backdrop of the energy crisis, political analysts and experts have started to consider the possibilities of reintegration and return of the Transnistrian region into the legal framework of the Republic of Moldova. However, most discussions have led to the conclusion that neither politically nor economically, the necessary preparations for such a step are yet in place. Moreover, on the threshold of parliamentary elections, such a process is practically impossible. However, the recognition by the Transnistrian side that it cannot cope without external help could, in the future, provide a basis for mutual agreements on reintegration.

The energy crisis, artificially provoked by Moscow, can be seen as one of the stages in the Kremlin’s preparations for the parliamentary elections due this year in Moldova. The experience of the presidential elections and the referendum in the fall of 2024 demonstrated that Moldova remains extremely vulnerable to Russia’s levers of influence and its attempts to undermine democratic and electoral processes and the pro-European direction of the Republic of Moldova. On the eve of the parliamentary elections in Moldova, Moscow intensified its efforts to ensure the victory of pro-Russian forces. For the current pro-European government, this is a serious challenge and a clear signal that it must act pre-emptively. The energy crisis is highly likely to affect the ruling party’s electoral chances, despite the efforts of the authorities.

Pro-Russian forces prepare for revenge

The negotiations that started between the US and Russia on Ukraine without the participation of Ukraine and its European allies, together with the fact that Donald Trump did not agree to the definition of Russia as an aggressor in the resolution that G7 leaders were to approve before the third anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, as well as the unprecedented criticism of US President Volodimir Zelensky – accused of dictatorial aspirations, while Vladimir Putin was not subject to the same criticism – indicate a shift in the US foreign policy. It is safe to say that a geopolitical reconfiguration has begun that will affect both Ukraine and Moldova.

The results of the upcoming parliamentary elections will be a decisive moment. Russia’s main objective is to undermine Moldova’s pro-European course.

We are already seeing the actions of pro-Russian forces intensifying. The creation of the opposition electoral bloc ‘Alternativa’, with the participation of former presidential candidate Alexandr Stoianoglo; the protests organized by former president and leader of the Party of Socialists, Igor Dodon, against the current government; Irina Vlah’s proposals for the signing of a pact between opposition forces against PAS; the hardening of Russian rhetoric towards Moldova; the artificial exacerbation of the situation in order to destabilize and divide society – all this is only the beginning. This year’s parliamentary elections in Moldova will take place in an extremely difficult context. It is clear that the current composition of the Parliament will not remain the same, but the essential question is whether a revival of pro-Russian forces in Moldova is possible. This question will be defining for the European future of our country.