Tatiana Cojocari, an expert in sociology and the post-Soviet space, gave an interview for the FES/APE foreign policy newsletter, in which we discussed how a hybrid war can be won, the scenarios for consecutive single-party rule by the Action and Solidarity Party, and the consequences of populist parties entering the Moldovan Parliament. We also discussed the vote in the Transnistrian region and what strategies the pro-European government should adopt to change perceptions in the Gagauz Autonomous Territorial Unit. We invite you to read the full interview:

Was such a result in the parliamentary elections predictable for PAS, given the consolidation and positioning on the left, while no other party in the pro-European camp rose to challenge PAS?

Here, I think, we can say one thing for sure, namely that PAS was the favourite in the polls that appeared before the election campaign.

Although the polls did not necessarily show a majority for this party, PAS was still better positioned than the other parties.

Judging by the example of the 2024 presidential elections, I don’t think it was possible to make a predictable forecast, even if some people claim it was. Because we were somehow burned by the referendum, and one of the scenarios we were working with was that PAS could have won a majority on its own. But this majority would have been fragile and dependent on certain risks. I will explain this below.

Firstly, there are two major factors that we saw in the referendum, but also previously – turnout in the elections. We saw exemplary participation in the diaspora in 2024, and we were counting on this again now.

Secondly, the most important and risky factor was the existence and dismantling of electoral corruption networks. We are talking here about Tatiana Cojocari, an expert in sociology and the post-Soviet space. Photo: Facebook Monthly newsletter, No.9 (235), September 2025 3 the efforts and capacity of our authorities to dismantle these networks. That is why it was quite difficult to anticipate certain things, and the result is still better than most experts and society expected.

However, one thing is certain here – the lessons that the Republic of Moldova should teach European states affected by hybrid warfare. Namely, if you want to emerge victorious from this hybrid warfare, it is not enough just to communicate well, debunk false information, and so on. What is really needed are measures based on a legal framework that allows external interference to be stopped and penalised.

What we have seen now, compared to the presidential elections and referendum in 2024, are the measures initiated by our authorities. More specifically, we are talking about evidence that has nevertheless allowed for the preservation of democratic and transparent voting and elections, obviously with certain deviations as in other years, but not so many as to affect the score and the result.

Single-party government or multiparty system?

We know that democracy requires a multi-party system. This is the second consecutive legislative term in which a single party will govern by itself. How beneficial is this situation, and could it be the political formula needed for EU accession?

I believe so, and I will explain why. Looking back at the history of parliamentary elections in the Republic of Moldova, we can see that only one political party has had a similar performance. I am referring to the Party of Communists of the Republic of Moldova. They were the ones who managed to win a majority in several consecutive parliamentary elections and governed without forming a coalition.

I do not intend to compare the two parties – PAS and PCRM – but I have seen that when we had alliances and coalitions in government, governing was difficult and no tangible results were achieved.

Today, we once again have a party that has been reelected with a specific and very important goal. Earlier, I spoke about erosion, but this erosion does not seem to have been so great for PAS. However, we must admit that this party has also benefited greatly from the trust capital of President Maia Sandu.

People are waiting for concrete reforms – especially in the economic sphere – and this should be PAS’s focus. I believe that a majority given to a single party will accelerate reforms for integration into the European Union. Obviously, many are concerned about this multiparty system and whether or not it is a good thing.

We saw certain abuses during the PCRM government, but the fact that we still had other opposition parties with different ideologies was able to protect the Republic of Moldova from a possible slide into autocracy, in my opinion. And we are seeing this now as well. However, we have five different political parties that have entered the Moldovan Parliament, and this will matter because we will have those critical voices that will penalise any deviation from governance, more specifically any violation of the law.

Populism in Parliament

How do you view the entry into Parliament of two populist party leaders – Renato Usatîi and Vasile Costiuc – and how do you think this will affect the legislative process?

The vote on 28 September indicates that the Republic of Moldova is gradually maturing politically. First of all, I see this vote as a sign of political maturity in society. Political maturity often comes with the erosion of existing parties – the established ones – with classical ideologies, even if in the Republic of Moldova it is difficult to talk about ideology, but rather about geopolitics.

The parties of the two leaders, Renato Usatîi and Vasile Costiuc, show that a phenomenon similar to that in other European countries is beginning to manifest itself in the Republic of Moldova. And here I am referring to populism and the emergence of parties that do not position themselves with a very clear ideology. It is a mixture of everything.

As we know, Mr Costiuc’s party did not even have an electoral programme, so I am not sure what it has to offer. It depends very much on the success of the current Parliament and how it governs whether these populist parties will gain more ground in the future in the next elections or not. But it is clear that the Republic of Moldova is not immune to international trends.

What can be done now to reconcile society, because the pro-European project that is being prepared must be approved by as large a majority as possible. What mechanisms do you see for society to recover after the fierce presidential, referendum and now parliamentary election campaigns of the last year?

If we look at this year’s political map of the parliamentary elections, I would say that it shows us the social polarisation we have been discussing, but which is gradually diminishing.

We have a much more uniform map now than we had during the referendum, which again indicates that when it comes to political and economic stability, things are a little different, regardless of people’s political affiliations.

This time, we cannot say, as the opposition claimed in the past, that it was the diaspora that elected the president and so on, because we saw that PAS still won the majority in the Republic of Moldova. This is one of the factors.

The second interesting factor is the adverse effect of Russian interference in the Republic of Moldova, which has actually managed to consolidate society a little. We have seen a major turnout and support for the party that is already in government.

What I think can be done is to reduce the volume of discussions about geopolitics and discuss national economic programmes more intensively. I believe that this is the priority for the coming years, namely for the government to focus on regional development, economic investment, attracting investors and much more citizenoriented policies. Only in this way will it be possible to change political opinion and political behaviour. In such a scenario, we will have a society that is more united around the national idea of integration into the European Union.

The process of advancing on the European path

How can the Republic of Moldova now advance on the path of reform? Is the 2028 horizon for the country’s accession to the EU now more tangible, assuming that the EU’s interest in the Republic of Moldova remains as high?

It is indeed important to see what changes will take place at the European Union level, because we are also discussing certain transformations here. It remains to be seen. But what can the Republic of Moldova do? I believe it is important to have continuity as a country. Some reforms have been started and they need be continued. We already have specialists and professionals who are engaged in aligning national legislation with that of the European Union.

Continuity is what matters most now. And I believe that 2030 is a more realistic deadline than 2028. Whether we will integrate together or without Ukraine remains to be discussed. These are separate issues. Obviously, this also depends greatly on the position that the European Union will take.

How do you view the nearly 30 per cent vote in Transnistria for the pro-European party? Is this an indicator that the population there has also begun to see the benefits of the EU accession process, and that the right bank has become much more attractive in recent years?

I believe that this 30 per cent vote is not a vote for PAS, it is a vote for the idea of integration into the European Union. We saw the same percentage in the 2024 referendum among residents on the left bank of the Dniester.

The population of the Transnistrian region feels increasingly trapped between a Ukraine that is being invaded by Russia and a Republic of Moldova that wants to integrate into the European Union. And so, the question for those in the Transnistrian region creates uncertainty. It is not known what will happen to the population there, and in this context, I believe that they will have to make a decision as to whether they want to join the Republic of Moldova or not.

The second factor is that the Transnistrian region has been hit by increasing economic problems in recent years, and it is impossible not to see certain changes for the better on the right bank, thanks to European investments.

This is also explained by the fact that around 12,000 cars cross the illegal border from the left bank to the right bank of the Dniester to come and work in the Republic of Moldova. In practice, little by little, the citizens of the Transnistrian region are making a choice, and this choice is also reflected in their voting behaviour at the polls.

Strategies for UTA Gagauzia

What can pro-European forces do to penetrate the Gagauz region? Because we talked about the Transnistrian region and the vote in the referendum and now in the parliamentary elections, but in Gagauzia we cannot talk about the same thing. The vote has remained at around 3% for the main proEuropean party.

It is very important, however, for the ruling party to be present in the region, regardless of the score they achieved in these elections. This time, we had only one representative from the region on the PAS list, but she did not bring in many votes.

It is important that, in the next round of elections for the Bashkan of Gagauzia, PAS supports a candidate. At most, it should remain neutral if it does not support a candidate, and PAS should work hard with local actors and opinion leaders, with entrepreneurs who are very interested in the European market and leaders there who are interested in attracting more investment through European projects.

It is equally important for the ruling party to work with opinion leaders in the region, because neither the Government nor the Parliament can change the opinion of the Gagauz people. We have seen this before when, despite the fact that there are investments in the region, their opinion of the authorities in Chișinău and the EU has not changed. Only opinion leaders in the region will influence the political behaviour of the residents of Gagauzia.

Thank you!