We spoke to two Romanian analysts, Mihai Isac and Angela Gramada, director of the think tank Experts for Security and Global Affairs (ESGA), about what the priorities should be for the new Romanian President Nicusor Dan’s term in office, especially when it comes to Moldova and Ukraine. We also discussed the implications of the Romanian presidential elections for Moldova, which is also preparing for parliamentary elections this autumn. Read the interviews published in the FES/ APE Foreign Policy Bulletin:

Angela Gramada, Director of Experts for Security and Global Affairs (ESGA)

What do you see as the first measures that the new President of Romania, Nicusor Dan, should take as head of state? What are the priorities for his mandate?

I think that internally he has two priorities. The first concerns how he will manage the talks with political parties on the formation of a new government. I don’t think it will be an easy task knowing how the factions of the various parties that crossed the electoral threshold in November 2024 are positioning themselves and knowing what the priorities of these political parties were with regard to the presidential elections, that is, how they supported one or another candidate.

It is not necessarily the problem with Nicusor Dan, the problem is with these political parties that have a fairly long history in the political life in Bucharest, but now seem to have gone into a tailspin in the sense that they can no longer manage the relationship with the voters, with those who give them this support or part of their sovereignty.

The second big challenge will be how to manage the social and economic situation in the country, because here we know very well that there are certain problems and difficulties. There is a loss of confidence in the ability of the relevant institutions in Romania to cope with crises, especially the economic crisis.

This was also mentioned by Nicusor Dan in several public debates on various TV channels. The new president realizes very well that it will be a challenge for him to convince the political parties that Romania needs stability, a government that will face these crises and challenges together with him.

The President’s mandate is not equal to that of a Prime Minister, but he can still influence certain trends or discussions if he is a good mediator between these two priorities. So political stability, in one form or another, and the management of socio-economic issues will be the biggest challenges.

The package also includes justice, home affairs, central and local administration, i.e. the reforms that Dan announced in the election campaign that he would try to propose and promote. But the two mentioned earlier remain the priorities of his presidential term regarding the domestic situation, i.e. the internal affairs of the state.

Implications for the Republic of Moldova

How do you see the relationship with the Republic of Moldova and especially what kind of signal is the presidential election won by a pro-European candidate giving in the run-up to the parliamentary elections in Chisinau due this autumn?

Support for Ukraine

How do you see the relationship between Bucharest and Kiev evolving in this perspective of the election of a new president?

If you look at Nicusor Dan’s program for his presidential term, you will notice that Ukraine is not mentioned there. Instead, it mentions the strategic partnership with the United States, the relationship with the European Union, the number one strategic priority being the Republic of Moldova.

Ukraine was somehow omitted. However, in his speeches in public debates, Dan has mentioned several times that Romania must stand by Ukraine and that we must do our utmost to continue to preserve security in the region, including by increasing defence spending to 3.5% of GDP.

So, from this perspective, we can say that Romania’s assistance to Ukraine will continue. We have also seen the message from Volodimir Zelenski, who thanked Romania once again for all that it has done, although he chose not to make his support public.

The new president also spoke about Kiev’s openness to work on the problems, i.e. to find a solution to them and not to keep them in order to get votes at certain electoral moments.

I believe that there will be continuity, but a lot also depends on the people with whom the new President of Romania will surround himself, the security and defence advisors. But I hope he will choose what is best for Romania.

Mihai Isac, political and security analyst

What are the priorities you see at the beginning of this presidential term for the Republic of Moldova?

Romania’s priority is to ensure political and economic stability. To this end, Nicusor Dan has already announced that he will start negotiations with pro-European parties in an attempt to establish a coalition of national unity to form a cordon sanitaire around the so-called sovereigntist parties in the Bucharest Parliament, in order to ensure a stable majority.

Some of the parties – Union Save Romania (USR), the Democratic Union of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR) and the National Liberal Party (PNL) – have signaled that they are ready to take part in the talks. The Social Democratic Party (PSD) has not yet had a clear position on the matter. The Social democratic Party’s approach to these negotiations will determine whether or not they will have the desired outcome.

Nicusor Dan wants to avoid early parliamentary elections. These early parliamentary elections could be used by the so-called sovereigntist parties to try to take revenge. We could then have a parliament dominated by sovereigntist forces, which, in alliance with certain elements from the Social Democratic Party, could even form a coalition.

Mr. Ilie Bolojan [President of the Senate] is, so far, the name being discussed for the post of Prime Minister, but, as I was saying, it matters a lot what PSD will decide in the coming period.

There will be a few weeks of “long knives” in all parties, including USR, PSD, PNL, because of the internal war for leadership positions in these parties.

In this context, Nicusor Dan has the difficult task of ensuring a stable government. A stable government is necessary to be able to turn Romania’s economic situation around. There are serious budget and investment problems. Important projects have been suspended, such as the construction of highways to the Republic of Moldova. It remains to be seen whether Nicusor Dan will be able to choose his collaborators wisely to implement his strategy.

The fact that Nicusor Dan doesn’t have a strong party behind him is a handicap at the moment and there will most likely be attempts by PNL or USR to attract the current president to their side in order to become a presidential party and to use the image of saviour that Nicusor Dan has at the moment.

Vital ally for the Republic of Moldova

Bearing in mind that Romania is the main economic partner of the Republic of Moldova, what would a recovery of Romania’s economy mean for the neighbouring country and how do you see this aspect?

A strong Romania is a reliable ally of the Republic of Moldova. Any economic growth in Romania has immediate and beneficial consequences for the Republic of Moldova. We are talking here about an increase in Romania’s capacity to support the neighbouring country, an increase in the investment capacity of Romanian business circles wishing to become involved in the Republic of Moldova. At the same time, a stable economy means a stable political environment, which would make it easier for Romanian state institutions to become more involved in supporting the Republic of Moldova. Of course, this has taken place and will take place within the limits imposed by the Constitution of the Republic of Moldova, without violating the neutrality of this state.

Positive signal

What does the election of a new president here in Bucharest mean for the vote in Moldova’s parliamentary elections this autumn? Is this a positive signal for pro European forces?

Yes, it is a positive signal for pro-European forces. The election of Nicusor Dan as President of Romania is a defeat for the Russian Federation in the long hybrid war which it has waged against the democracies of the European Union and its partner states.

The election of Nicusor Dan as the new President of Romania should not be used by the current leadership in Chisinau to stop the effort to make reforms in the idea that Nicusor Dan’s victory automatically ensures the victory of the Action and Solidarity Party (PAS) in the autumn parliamentary elections in Moldova.

The political class in Chisinau needs to bury the hatchet and really take steps to create a pro-European pole in these parliamentary elections. Even if Nicusor Dan’s victory puts a stop for the time being to the Russian Federation’s efforts in Romania, the approaching parliamentary elections in the Republic of Moldova will lead to an intensification of Moscow’s efforts to halt Chisinau’s European course.

What does the election of Nicusor Dan mean for Ukraine and the support that Ukraine needs in these difficult times of war, bearing in mind that Romania is one of the main logistical routes for aid to Ukraine?

After the usual visit that President Nicusor Dan will certainly make to Chisinau in the immediate future, we expect that one of his next visits will be to Kiev. Nicusor Dan has distinguished himself as a supporter of Ukraine.

It is important to understand that Romania’s support for Ukraine will intensify both bilaterally and at the level of the European institutions. At the same time, we must look with understanding at the fact that Nicusor Dan also needs some time to settle into his new role and to select the team that will manage these difficult dossiers.

But Nicusor Dan has an important support at the European Union level, including from French President Emmanuel Macron, and this will allow Romania to play an important role in the architecture of relations between Ukraine and the EU bloc.

Euro-Atlantic cooperation

How do you see the relationship with the European Union and the USA that the new presidential administration in Bucharest wants to have? How will the new president relate to Romania’s two strategic allies?

The election of Nicusor Dan as Romania’s new President and the current unofficial political crisis caused by Prime Minister Ciolacu’s decision to resign and the steps to nominate a new prime minister offer some breathing space to Bucharest, which could find new ways to convince the European Union to allow the implementation of certain derogations from EU rules to allow the absorption of more EU funds.

It is a clear signal to partner states that Romania remains firmly anchored in the Euro-Atlantic area. At the same time, however, this image of Nicusor Dan as the saviour of democracy in Romania may turn against him and against Romania if this state does not know how to manage relations with political parties well.

At the moment, Romania is enjoying some breathing space and EU partner states have clearly demonstrated their willingness to participate in Romania’s economic recovery.

Regarding the relationship between Romania and the United States, at the moment, it is on stand-by. Fortunately, we have seen that the pro-American discourse has been monopolized by George Simion, and when I refer to the pro-American discourse, I am actually referring to the pro-Trump discourse, but surely, with the support of the decision-makers at European Union level, a way will be found for the Nicusor Dan administration, cemented by the clear victory in the presidential elections, to enter into direct relations with the Trump administration.

Given the transactional way in which Donald Trump understands how to implement US foreign policy, it is good that Nicusor Dan and the people around him take some lessons in the art of lobbying.

What is the lesson for Chisinau, ahead of the parliamentary elections in the Republic of Moldova this autumn, that Romania nevertheless resisted the populism and disunity promoted and encouraged by Russia during the Romanian presidential campaign?

Such an episode has already taken place in the Republic of Moldova and I am referring here to the fact that last autumn, a very large number of people voted for Maia Sandu, who responded to the Russian Federation’s attempts to hijack the presidential elections and the referendum on European integration.

At the same time, we have to understand that what happened on November 3, 2024 in the Republic of Moldova or what happened on May 18, 2025 in Romania will not necessarily happen in the elections on September 28 in the Republic of Moldova. The authorities in Chisinau need to bury the hatchet and hold clear talks with pro European political players in the Republic of Moldova.

One of the important lessons from all these experiences for the Republic of Moldova must be law enforcement. The fact that clear electoral legislation was applied in Romania, which prevented or at least limited Russian influence, was clearly seen even during the day of the presidential election itself. The Romanian authorities have complained of cyber-attacks affecting the electoral infrastructure of the Romanian state.

Thank you!