Editorial by Marin Gherman, Director of the Institute of Political Studies and Social Capital (Chernivtsi) and lecturer at the”Stefan cel Mare” University, Suceava, Romania, for FES/APE Foreign Policy Bulletin.

On 11 June, eleven heads of state and government met in Odessa, southern Ukraine, to discuss the future security architecture of the wider Black Sea region and plans for the reconstruction of Ukraine – a state under daily bombardment by the Russian army. Held under the constant threat of Russian drones and missiles, the summit rekindled an older geopolitical theme: the strategic relationship in the UkraineRomania-Republic of Moldova triangle.

Beyond the profound symbolism of Odessa for today’s Ukraine – a city that not only resists, but hosts with dignity major international events where Russia’s aggression is criticised and condemned – the event was also marked by an important political moment: the first official visit to Ukraine of the newly elected President of Romania, Nicushor Dan. Besides attending debates and meetings in different formats, the Romanian President also met with representatives of the Romanian community in Southern Bessarabia, thus reaffirming Bucharest’s support for the identity and cultural rights of Romanians in the region.

Russia and the Kiev-Bucharest-Chisinau triangle

The Kiev-Bucharest-Bucharest-Chisinau trilateral is not a new construction in the regional geopolitical landscape. Over the years, there have been several attempts – some modest, others more ambitious – to build solid strategic co-operation between the three capitals. However, a number of “black swans” have prevented these initiatives from being transformed into sustainable projects: deviations from the European path in the two former Soviet republics, indecision of the Romanian political class, lack of common vision among regional leaders, and Russia’s destructive influence, culminating in the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Russia has consistently tried to block any form of regional solidarity and co-operation in Eastern Europe, perceiving these initiatives as direct threats to its sphere of influence. Paradoxically, Monthly newsletter, No.6 (232), June 2025 7 it is precisely Russian aggression against Ukraine that has hastened the reactivation of geopolitical formulae that have been abandoned or postponed. The first trilateral meeting at the highest level between Romania, the Republic of Moldova and Ukraine took place on the margins of the Ukraine - South-East Europe summit.

A strong message was sent by the President of the Republic of Moldova, Maia Sandu, who warned that in the event of a defeat for Ukraine, her country would become the next target of Russian aggression. In her opinion, Russia would not stop at Ukraine’s borders. She emphasised that the Republic of Moldova is already the victim of a hybrid war unleashed by the Kremlin, manifested through energy blackmail, externally funded protests, propaganda through religious channels and infiltration of the political scene by criminal groups. Moscow’s ultimate goal, warns Sandu, is to destabilise Moldova internally and turn it into an instrument of pressure against Ukraine and the EU.

Both Romanian President Nicushor Dan and Maia Sandu reaffirmed their strong support for Ukraine, stressing that its struggle is not only for its own survival, but also for the security of the entire European continent and the defence of a rules-based international order.

For his part, Ukrainian President Volodimir Zelenski emphasised Moldova’s strategic importance in Russia’s plans, recalling that Moscow has been trying for three decades to keep the country poor and unstable in order to control it. Mr Zelenski warned that a possible European defeat for Moldova would spur the Kremlin’s ambitions to meddle even deeper in the internal affairs of other states in the region. The deterioration of the security situation will have a domino effect which will directly affect Romania as well, making any form of regional cooperation impossible without taking common interests into account.

First important common steps: Energy interconnection and security

In a message published on social networks, the President of Romania, Nicushor Dan, emphasised that substantial trilateral discussions have been held, focused on identifying concrete directions for cooperation in strategic areas such as energy and logistical interconnections, cross-border connectivity, security and combating hybrid threats, reconstruction and building resilience, and reforms essential for European integration.

For her part, the President of the Republic of Moldova, Maia Sandu, emphasised in a statement that Chisinau, Kiev and Bucharest must act together to build ”security”, ”infrastructure” and ”a clear path towards a united, free and democratic Europe”.

Romania has, in this context, the potential and the chance to become a proactive international actor, a strong voice in the region, if it successfully completes the energy/logistic interconnection projects and integrates the bilateral initiatives (Romania-Ukraine and Romania-Republic of Moldova) into a coherent strategic concept. The aim is to extend and modernise the electricity and natural gas transmission infrastructure between the three countries in order to reduce energy dependence on the Russian Federation and reduce Moscow’s energy blackmail.

By connecting energy systems and diversifying sources of supply, Romania, Moldova and Ukraine can strengthen regional energy security. A concrete example is the Iasi-Ungheni-Chisinau gas pipeline, which can be expanded to meet the growing interconnection requirements. Another significant step has been the decoupling of the Ukrainian electricity system from the Russian grid in 2022 and its gradual  integration into the European energy system. These initiatives must have as a common goal the  elimination of the Soviet legacy in the field of infrastructure in Ukraine and the Republic of Moldova – a legacy that keeps these states vulnerable and dependent on Moscow, used as political capital during elections.

Trilateral co-operation to combat hybrid threats

The three countries face information warfare in different ways, and coordinated action is needed to combat disinformation, cyber-attacks and manipulation of public opinion. The creation of regional hubs that could bring together independent media organisations, fact-checkers, cyber-security specialists and government authorities remain only at the level of proposals and concepts. Revitalising these initiatives is more than necessary. Romania already has experience with European initiatives, and Ukraine and the Republic of Moldova have taken drastic restrictive measures against Russian-language Russian propaganda bodies.

The co-operation format in the field of countering hybrid threats can be extended beyond the non-conventional dimension. A permanent trilateral format for defence cooperation could be created, focusing on information exchange, joint exercises and interoperability. This could also include a jointly managed regional centre for strategic threat analysis and anticipation, under the aegis of the EU. Romania, as a NATO member state, can provide expertise and assistance, reconfirming its role as a major regional actor.

Trilateral co-operation in the European integration process

The European integration of EU candidate countries Ukraine and Moldova is a major geopolitical challenge. Romania, with its own accession experience and understanding of the specificities of the former socialist states, is ideally placed to facilitate this process. But the war in Ukraine complicates the regional equation.

Trilateral cooperation could take the form of an institutionalised mechanism through which Romania could share its expertise: implementation of the acquis communautaire, institutional reform, the fight against corruption, modernisation of the judiciary and alignment with European standards. Joint training programmes, where Romanian experts work directly with their counterparts in Ukraine and Moldova, are an important element.

Interparliamentary cooperation through trilateral working groups on European issues can harmonise national legislation with the acquis communautaire. Many other joint mechanisms can be found in the coming years.

Turning tensions into stability

By facilitating the integration of the two countries, Romania could become a regional hub for EU policies in the Eastern neighbourhood, gaining increased visibility in the European institutions. This is exactly what Bucharest has lacked much in the last 10-15 years. This position would translate into regional leadership, increased influence in European decision-making processes and preferential access to funds for regional co-operation.

European integration of neighbours would open up significant economic opportunities. The extension of the Single Market would create an area of 55-60 million inhabitants, with major potential in the food industry, the energy sector through common infrastructure, financial services, tourism and IT through regional technology hubs.

But implementing cooperation is not without challenges: differences in the pace of reforms, internal pressures and destabilising external influences can affect collaboration. To be successful, co-operation requires transparency, clear objectives and regular assessment of progress, and without clear planning the geopolitical triangle can only exist on paper.

The Bucharest-Kiev-Chisinau axis can become a bridge between the old Europe and the Europe in the making, where Romania can play the role of architect. Trilateral cooperation is not just a regional security strategy, but a recipe for transforming an area of tension, hatred and wars into an area of prosperity and stability.