Editorial signed by Madalin Necsutu, taken from IPG Journal, published in the FES/ APE Foreign Policy Bulletin

The Romanian presidential elections were a watershed moment – not only for the country itself, but also for Europe and the region as a whole – in the context of Russia’s hybrid war against democratic countries. The final winner was the independent pro-European candidate Nicusor Dan, who won 53.6% of the vote, ahead of far-right populist George Simion with 46.4%.

The battle inside Romania was not just a contest between two candidates – it was about choosing the country’s direction of development at a critical moment. Romania has been maintaining its geopolitical course for a quarter of a century, since the 2000 presidential election. Back then, voters had to choose between a candidate who favoured the EU and NATO and a far-right candidate who wanted to keep Romania out of these alliances. Romania joined NATO in 2004 and the EU in 2007.

The COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine prompted Romania to form a coalition government made up of the two main parties, the Social Democratic Party and the National Liberal Party. However, this ‘unconventional alliance’ failed to deliver effective public policies during the crisis. The managerial decisions taken within this coalition led to economic difficulties, in particular a growing budget deficit, that were not properly explained to the public, which began to perceive the government as arrogant and insolent.

The coalition government formed by the two main parties – the Social Democrats and the National Liberal Democrats – has failed to deliver effective public policies in times of crisis

Income inequality and opaque restrictions on freedom of movement have caused social tensions and created favourable conditions for populist and extremist movements to gain support among the population.

Parties such as the Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR) and the Youth Party (POT) embodied these extremes and received support in line with Kremlin interests in the region. Although direct links between these parties and Moscow have not been proven, Russian support through propaganda, social media or logistical assistance for election campaigns is evident. Anti-EU and anti-NATO populists have been supported by the Kremlin, which has contributed to their rise, the spread of conspiracy theories and a wave of hatred in society, which has increased its polarization.

Romania is Kiev’s indispensable ally

Romania prefers to help Ukraine in a non-public manner, in order not to favour populist parties that use this issue in their electoral rhetoric. Despite this, it remains Ukraine’s key Western partner. Romania has the longest border with Ukraine, 613 kilometres, almost 100 kilometres longer than the Polish-Ukrainian border.

During the three years of total war, Romania became a vital logistical hub for the delivery of arms and other aid from the West to Ukraine. The country itself also made a significant contribution to support, especially with ammunition.

Dan acted cautiously in supporting Ukraine

While other countries in the region hesitated, Romania offered Ukraine one of its four Patriot missile defence systems, even though only two operational systems were still in service at the time. The decision sparked much controversy in Romania, but strategic necessity prevailed. The transfer became a priority for Bucharest, which was immediately exploited by pro-Russian propaganda and radical forces.

After the elections, the newly elected President Nicusor Dan expressed his willingness to continue to support Ukraine and announced his intention to increase defence spending.

Although support for Ukraine was not in his official electoral program, Dan openly declared his solidarity with Kiev – even at the risk of losing part of his electorate. His willingness to raise this sensitive issue, especially in the context of widespread populist reports that aid to Ukraine could draw Romania into a war with Russia, has proved an effective strategy.

Dan has acted cautiously on support for Ukraine. At the same time, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, shortly after his election, assured Kiev’s readiness to be a good neighbour and partner of Romania. This shows the determination of both leaders to quietly but consistently counter the threat from the Kremlin.

Geostrategic stakes and disrupting Moscow’s plans

Russia tried to “put” its puppet in the presidential chair in Bucharest in order to destabilize Romania, deprive Ukraine of a strategic ally and strengthen divisions in Romanian society by manipulating public opinion through social networks. But the Romanian people managed to defeat Moscow’s plans.

In addition, the victory of pro-European candidate Nicusor Dan is an important signal ahead of the parliamentary elections in Moldova, which will take place in September this year.

European forces are hoping for another four-year mandate, further pro-European reforms in Chisinau and the weakening of pro-Russian political forces. It is essential that Moldova forms a parliamentary majority with a pro-European government that will cooperate effectively with President Maia Sandu.

Russia is already investing significant resources in the hybrid war against Moldova

A new four-year political cycle, marked by synergies between the president, government and parliament, will bring Moldova closer to the EU. Russia is already investing significant resources in the hybrid war against Moldova – estimated at around $200 million for these elections – in an attempt to influence voters through a network set up in Moscow by fugitive Moldovan oligarch Ilan Shor.

The situation in Romania is stabilizing, which is not the case in Poland, another key ally of Ukraine on which much of its Western support depends. Poland’s presidential election, with a runoff on June 1 between Rafal Trzaskowski and Karol Nawrocki, will be a critical moment. Should the centrist Trzaskowski defeat the nationalist Nawrocki, Ukraine will gain another reliable strategic partner associated with Romania. It is therefore essential to thwart Moscow’s plans so that Kiev’s powerful neighbours remain firm in their support for Ukraine.

The ideal scenario for the region is that all of Ukraine’s neighbours, namely Romania, Poland and the Republic of Moldova, have pro-European governments and presidents. Such a political constellation – combined with the determination and resilience of Ukrainians on the frontline – would undoubtedly increase the chances of victory. But Russia’s desire to disrupt this scenario should not be underestimated. Vigilance and coordinated action must therefore remain a top priority.